Why Ghana Must Rethink Exporting Lithium to China — A Strategic Call to Refine Locally

Recent concerns raised by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) suggest Ghana could lose up to $500 million if it proceeds with domestic lithium refining. But in the face of mounting geopolitical tensions and China’s increasingly weaponized control over critical minerals, it’s time to reframe the narrative — and ask a more urgent question:

What is the cost of not refining our own lithium?

China’s Rare Earth Export Halt Is a Wake-Up Call China, which refines over 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals, has now halted exports of these materials globally — not just to the United States. This bold move, sparked by a trade conflict with the Trump administration, has disrupted global supply chains in the tech, aerospace, and defense sectors.

Any nation dependent on China for mineral refining now faces a chilling reality: critical supply chains can be shut off overnight.

Ghana is being courted by China as a source of raw lithium — a key input for electric vehicles, batteries, defense technologies, and AI. But should we entrust our national minerals to a nation that is currently blocking global access to the very same class of strategic resources?

Refining Is Not Just Economics — It’s Sovereignty While NRGI’s modeling highlights short-term revenue losses if Ghana builds a refinery, this perspective is narrowly financial and lacks geopolitical context. Local refining may not immediately match export gains, but the long-term benefits are strategic and transformational:

Value chain ownership: Refining at home moves Ghana up the value chain, away from being just a raw material supplier.

Industrialization & jobs: Local refineries drive skills transfer, create high-paying technical jobs, and spark downstream industries.

Strategic leverage: As countries scramble to reduce dependency on China, Ghana positions itself as a rare, independent supplier.

National security: If China can choke off supply to the U.S., what prevents it from manipulating Ghana’s own economic future?

China Wants Ghana’s Lithium for a Reason Let’s not be naive. China’s interest in Ghana’s lithium is not altruistic — it’s strategic. As the world transitions to clean energy and AI-powered systems, lithium is becoming the new oil. Countries without refining capabilities are at the mercy of those who control them.

China understands this. The U.S. understands this — hence Trump’s aggressive push for Greenland and Ukraine’s rare earths.

The question now is: Does Ghana understand this?

Rethinking the $500 Million “Loss” Yes, building a refinery requires capital and patience. But so did cocoa processing, gold smelting, and bauxite refining. Should we have exported raw cocoa forever because adding value was initially “expensive”? Look where that got us.

Rather than abandon local refining, Ghana must:

• Seek blended financing with development banks and green investors
• Leverage public-private partnerships to offset capital costs
• Start with modular refining capacity and scale with feedstock
• Establish export-ready refining SEZs (Special Economic Zones)
• We must also remember: Economic independence has a price — and so does dependence.

Conclusion: Lithium Is Ghana’s Moment Ghana can be a passive player in the global mineral trade — or it can be a strategic actor in the 21st-century critical minerals revolution. China’s export halt is not just a news story; it is a flashing red warning light.

Let’s not sell tomorrow’s leverage for today’s quick revenue. Refining lithium is not just about money — it is about power, control, and our rightful place in the global economy.